Contrary to expectations, China’s economy grew by 4.5% in the third quarter of 2026. Compared with the previous quarter, gross domestic product rose by 1.2%, faster than the 0.9% growth recorded in the second quarter.
The main driver of this growth was the increase in China’s goods exports, which led to an unexpectedly large expansion of the trade surplus in September. China is on track to surpass last year’s record of $1.2 trillion.
In the industrial sector, output grew by 5.5% in September, the fastest growth rate in the past six months. Meanwhile, retail sales rose by 1.1%, their strongest level since March, although consumer spending overall remains weak.
China’s policymakers have not intervened extensively to stimulate the economy and are relying more heavily on exports, particularly in sectors related to technology and artificial intelligence. This puts China on course to meet its annual target, set at between 4.5% and 5%.
Despite this, investment in fixed assets fell by 7.2% in the first nine months of the year, while investment in economic infrastructure also declined, despite the government increasing financial support for the private sector and loans.
