Contrary to forecasts, China’s economy grew by 4.5% in the third quarter of 2026. Compared with the previous quarter, gross domestic product increased by 1.2%, faster than the 0.9% growth recorded in the second quarter.
The main reason for this growth was the increase in exports of Chinese goods, which led to an unexpected expansion of the trade balance in September. China is on track to surpass last year’s record of $1.2 trillion.
By industrial sector, output grew by 5.5% in September, the fastest rate of growth in the past six months. Retail sales, meanwhile, increased by 1.1%, their strongest level since March, although consumer spending overall remains weak.
China’s policymakers have not undertaken extensive intervention to stimulate the economy and are relying more on exports, particularly in technology and artificial intelligence; this is putting China on track to achieve its annual target, set at between 4.5% and 5%.
Despite this, fixed-asset investment fell by 7.2% in the first nine months of the year, while investment in economic infrastructure has also declined, even as the government has increased financial support for the private sector and lending.
